Rumours about the state of health of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev have been circulating in Kyrgyzstan since the beginning of March.
The country’s government has released only limited information about this. At the same time, this strengthens people’s worries about the president’s health. Some rumours suggest that the president died: he allegedly received a gunshot wound in a conflict with his sons and was taken to Germany for an urgent operation on his kidney.
As a result of an information vacuum, Kyrgyzstan’s political elite groups are holding active negotiations on a possible transfer of power in case of the president’s death or inability to fulfil presidential powers due to health conditions.
In line with the new constitution adopted last year, if the president is incapable of fulfilling his functions, his powers are transferred to the Speaker of the Jogorku Kenesh (the country’s parliament). This post is currently occupied by Mr Bakiyev’s ally Adakhan Madumarov.
We predict that Kyrgyzstan will face another wave of instability in case of Mr Bakiyev’s death. Meanwhile, there is no unquestionable leader who is able to express the interests of both the country’s southern and northern regions and, as a result, prevent the country from falling into a crisis. Current government officials will try to appoint a person who is best placed to meet their interests.
At the moment, the most significant powers are concentrated in the hands of Mr Madumarov, Bishkek Mayor Daniyar Usenov, Medet Sadyrkulov (the head of the presidential administration) and Usen Sydykov (the former head of the presidential administration). We expect these people to try to contest an early presidential election if the death of the president is confirmed.
